Letter sent of to the Adver

I've been up to my eyeballs in so many things for the last couple of moths so sorry for the lack of postings. It's not because I haven't been doing anything, it's the opposite, I've been doing so much I haven't had time to blog about it!

Anyway, there will be posts on Wi-Fi, Copenhagen and various other important topics soon but, in the mean time, this is a letter I've just sent to the Adver regarding the recent deluge of "it's not happening" or "it's not us" letters they have printed about climate change. Enjoy.



Given the recent spate of letters about climate change, I would like to add some factual answers to the questions posed.

Firstly, the "It's the sun" argument, solar activity has shown little to no long term trend since the 1950's. Consequently, any correlation between sun and climate ended in the 1970's when the modern global warming trend began. Various independent measurements of solar activity all confirm the sun has shown a slight cooling trend since 1978. As for "It’s cosmic rays", while the link between cosmic rays and cloud cover is yet to be confirmed, more importantly, there has been no correlation between cosmic rays and global temperatures over the last 30 years of global warming. I can’t remember who said “it’s the moon moving nearer to /further from the earth”. This is a new one to me and some what odd as the moon as been slowing, but steadily, moving away from the earth since we landed on it 1969 and started taking daily measurements. The moon has many huge effects on the earth, such as the tides, but doesn’t affect sea temperate.

Secondly, the "Climate's changed before", "It's just a natural cycle". "Greenland was green" and "It warmed before 1940 when CO2 was low” or "Animals and plants can adapt to global warming" arguments. A large number of ancient mass extinction events have been strongly linked to global climate change. Because current climate change is so rapid, the way species typically adapt (eg - migration) is, in most cases, simply not be possible. Global change is simply too pervasive and occurring too rapidly. Natural climate change in the past proves that climate is sensitive to an energy imbalance. If the planet accumulates heat, global temperatures will go up. Currently, CO2 is imposing an energy imbalance due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Past climate change actually provides evidence for our climate's sensitivity to CO2. The 1500 year cycles, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events, are localized to the northern hemisphere and accompanied with cooling in the southern hemisphere. In contrast, current global warming is occurring in both hemispheres and particularly throughout the world's oceans, indicating a significant energy imbalance. The Greenland ice sheet has existed for at least 400,000 years. There may have been regions of Greenland that were 'greener' than today but this was not a global phenomenon. Early 20th century warming was in large part due to rising solar activity and relatively quiet volcanic activity. However, both factors have played little to no part in the warming since 1975. Solar activity has been steady since the 50's. Volcanoes have been relatively frequent and if anything, have exerted a cooling effect..

As for questioning the scientific consensus that humans are causing global warming or reliability of climate models, 97% of climate scientists actively publishing climate papers endorse the consensus position and while there are uncertainties with climate models, they successfully reproduce the past and have made predictions that have been subsequently confirmed by observations. Direct observations find that CO2 is rising sharply due to human activity. Satellite measurements find less energy is escaping to space at CO2 absorption wavelengths. Ocean and surface temperature measurements find the planet is steadily accumulating heat.

The "Human CO2 is a only a tiny percentage of CO2 emissions and so we are too insignificant to affect the global climate” argument holds no weight. There is direct empirical evidence that human CO2 emissions are causing global warming. The CO2 that nature emits (from the ocean and vegetation) is balanced by natural absorptions (again by the ocean and vegetation). Therefore human emissions upset the natural balance, rising CO2 to levels not seen in at least 800,000 years. Humans are emitting 26 gigatonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. Humans are dramatically altering the composition of our climate.

Finally, the claim that "Global warming is good". The negative impacts of global warming on agriculture, health, economy and environment far outweigh any positives.